Friday, April 26, 2013

Day One of the Draft Full of Misses & Misfits

This was a draft billed as deep by most, but with special players missing at the top tier. With that in mind, the teams at the top faired much better than some of the teams picking later in the first round. Here's a run down/analysis of each team:

  • Kansas City - Everyone knew KC was going offensive tackle coming into Thursday night's draft. The question was Luke Joeckel, the stud who helped wall off the Heisman trophy for Johnny Manziel, or a guy who reinforced his dominant play against lower end competition all offseason long in Central Michigan's Eric Fisher. Andy Reid decided Fisher's quicker feet was the best fit for his West Coast & zone blocking offense. This pick is truly hard to go wrong. It was (on a lesser scale) like deciding between RG3 and Andrew Luck last year. Great pick either way.
  • Jacksonville - With the Chiefs taking Fisher, the Jaguars stepped up to take who many, including me, had as the best player in the draft. Luke Joeckel will be excellent for the Jags. If there's a problem with the pick, it's that the Jags have a solid left tackle in Eugene Monroe while they also have needs any other places. This pick came down to quality vs quantity. It appears the new regime in Jacksonville just wants the best players and will want to go from there when constructing a roster. The choice won't be regretted.
  • Miami - The Dolphins traded the twelfth overall pick along with one of their second round picks (42nd overall) to move up and take pass rusher Dion Jordan with the third overall selection. Jordan's production isn't on a stat sheet but his upside is tremendous. Placing him on the same line as Cameron Wake could be a scary thought. With Miami still having a second round pick and making several power moves via free agency, this was an excellent move and choice
  • Philadelphia - Chip Kelly's very first draft, and he goes offense. Surprised? Didn't think so. Philly drafted the last of the left tackles available in round one. I expect Lane Johnson to move to right tackle for two reasons. First, the Eagles still have Jason Peters for now. Secondly, their presumed starter (Mike Vick) at QB is left handed. His blindside needs to be protected. Johnson may make the move to left tackle later in his career when Peters and/or Vick are no longer Eagles. Philadelphia was stuck in no man's land with two tackles going  first and second coupled with the Dolphins already tabbing their man a pick earlier. Kelly doesn't get value, but he gets a good player and a system fit.
  • Detroit - The Lions hit on a receiver so going defensive line is all the rage in Motown apparently.  Ziggy Ansah is an athletic marvel but new to the sport of football. He could definitely develop but he will have to do that alongside another project in Nick Fairley. Bold pick by the Lions. They probably should've gone cornerback with this pick but Ansah is the next Jason Pierre-Paul, I'll dip this post in weak sauce and eat my words.
  • Cleveland - Perhaps my favorite pick of the night -- DE Barkevious Mingo. He's squeaky clean, super quick as well as aggressive. Mingo will be used off the edge much of his NFL career. The Browns, with Phil Taylor, inside could be constructing a defensive line of dominance. 
  • Arizona - With the seventh pick, Arizona has what I consider the first "miss" of the draft. It's more appropriately labeled as a reach but if a team reaches, they miss on some what else. Jonathan Cooper was the selection and he was building steam as the best guard in this draft but in my view Chance Warmack was the most dominant player in college football last season. He had his way with everyone he came across. If Cooper was playing offensive tackle where he'd be in space more, I could understand the reasoning. However, his agility he showed at the combine won't be as beneficial as footwork, balance and strength at his position. With two 300 lb men on either side coupled with a guy in the same range in front of him, there won't be much room for sprinting at the guard position.
  • St. Louis - Three months ago, I thought I was one of the biggest Tavon Austin fans out there. Now, there were reports of teams having Austin as the number one player on the board. Standing at 5'8" and weighing 174 lb, it's hard for me to be THAT excited about him. Also, most people think of the defensive side of the ball when listing a player as a "tweener" but Tavon Austin strikes me as a Percy Harvin, Reggie Bush, Joshua Cribbs type that is a offensive "tweener". While he's versatile, it's also easy to misuse or miss him altogether in an offense. He's not worth the 8th pick, and certainly not worth using additional picks to trade up to get him.
  • New York Jets - The Jets came into the draft with two first round picks (9th and 13th). Their second first round pick was via Darrelle Revis, however, it's the 9th overall pick that is Revis' direct replacement. They correctly chose cornerback Dee Milliner. Will Milliner be as good Revis? Not likely. But here's what needs to be assessed along with swapping out Milliner for Revis. $13 million dollars. And probably five years. It's an investment that had to happen. My problem is what the Jets did at thirteen. Sheldon Richardson is a good player but he's a one-gap penetrator. The Jets already have a guy in Quinton Coples who doesn't fit their scheme perfectly, now they have two. An edge rusher was necessary for this 3-4 scheme and they haven't had one since moving to a 3-4. Sad.
  • Tennessee - Possibly the best pick of the first round. Guard Chance Warmack will plug in right away and start moving people. Those open holes should boost the confidence Chris Johnson seemingly lost in his team. If Johnson returns to form, it's like the Titans picked twice in the first round. Titans got value and need with this pick. Beautifully done.
  • San Diego - In a move that was not unlike previous picks, the Chargers selected offensive lineman D.J. Fluker. While I like Fluker's tools to be a pro, at pick 10, I'd expect him to play left tackle. Either they are content with him being a right tackle and it being a bit of a reach (maybe no trade partners) or they could try him at left tackle which I doubt is a successful experiment. Fluker will be a hard worker and great teammate, but he was nowhere near one of the ten best players in this draft as his pick suggests.   
  • Oakland - After trading down nine spots to number twelve, the Raiders grab the guy they had targeted all along if you believe G.M. Reggie McKenzie (and I do). While I loved the trade down because Oakland needs picks, I don't love the selection. They chose cornerback D.J. Hayden out Houston. He's an average sized corner with 4.3 speed... Stanford Routt anybody? I hope he's better than that but I have my reservations. Also, he wasn't an immediate need because Oakland signed Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins to play cornerback in the offseason. Although both players were signed to one-year deals so you can expect Hayden to fill in for one of them in 2014 at the latest. But with none of the three able to play on the inside, the Raiders can't use all three at once. Staying at three and taking Dee Milliner or even drafting a guy like Sanders Commings in the second round (both are bigger CBs that can cover slot guys) would've been better decisions.
  • Carolina - Carolina drafts Star Lotulelei who was a projected top five pick at one point. The Panthers had a huge need and got good value. The fit is nice as Lotulelei will be able to play both defensive tackles and get up field to wreak havoc. Carolina should look to find a receiver in the second round even if coughing up future picks is at stake.
  • New Orleans - This is another misfit pick. Kenny Vaccaro is a free safety who will now play strong safety. What the Saints needed was pass rusher, defensive tackle and possibly receiver. The value is decent but he's not a fit. Even fellow safety Matt Elam would have been a better fit in Rob Ryan's blitz happy scheme.
  • Buffalo - Worst pick of the night goes to... (drum roll, please).... The Buffalo Bills. Yes, they needed a quarterback. Yes, they grabbed additional picks and still nabbed their guy. The problem is the guy that was "theirs" is an imposter. The srong-arm, poised QB with the mobility and solid frame doesn't use any of those attributes properly. If E.J. Manuel "wins" the job in training camp, Buffalo will be drafting an early round QB again in three years. Mark. It. Down.
  • Pittsburgh - Jarvis Jones, billed as 3-4 outside linebacker extraordinaire, is selected by the team that almost reinvented the rush linebacker position. Jones has to be delighted to land with Steelers even if he doesn't like how far he fell. 
  • San Francisco - The 49ers move up from 31 to 18 to take Eric Reid. Although I feel like Reid possibly could have been on the board at 31, it was a good call to go get him because San Francisco had so many picks. He's a rangy center fielder which will fit nicely alongside Donte Whitner. The reach is safe here. I do expect San Francisco to look at wide receiver and defensive tackle in this draft soon.
  • New York Giants - The Giants take the hometown kid with the selection of offensive lineman Justin Pugh. I also see this pick as a reach but a fit. Pugh is a thick offensive lineman that can play guard and tackle. I suspect New York will get him in training camp before he gets a position label.
  • Chicago - Yet another offensive lineman goes off the board. Maybe these guys are reaches because of the rate others were going. However, when a team leaves a guy like Manti Te'o on the board to select a second round-caliber offensive lineman who isn't a scheme fit, I have to label it as a bad pick. Maybe Trestman's style will mesh with Kyle Long's zone blocking capabilities well...
  • Cincinnati - With possible dreams of Patriots-like two tight end sets, the Bengals drafted Tyler Eifert with the 21st pick. This pick has excellent value and I'd bet on success of Eifert but that success may come at the expense of current tight end Jermaine Gresham. I don't envision the two tight end sets giving defenses too much trouble. Neither player is a burner, neither runs well after the catch, and neither is a threat from the backfield. They're both traditional tight ends with enough athletic abiltiy to flex out to wide receiver but not extremely dangerous from that position. They drafted a fit that will cause a current player to become a misfit. At least Eifert has a clean record.
  • Atlanta - The Falcons connected in the first round by selecting cornerback Desmond Trufant at pick 22. Falcons without a doubt needed a cornerback and Trufant will fit right in the zone-heavy defense Atlanta runs. I wouldn't be surprised if he wasn't the only cornerback added this draft.
  • Minnesota - With almost ten percent of the first round picks, Minnesota selected defensive tackle Shariff Floyd (23rd), cornerback Xavier Rhodes (25th) and Cordarrelle Patterson (29th). I love the value with Floyd and it was a good pick but they still need a nose tackle to develop. Xavier Rhodes, who has the best ball skills in this draft, is virtually a steal at 25 and although there were more polished receivers at 29, Patterson is a good player. They also gave up a lot for a "one and one" player, even with his dynamic playmaking ability. Once they moved up, I think Minnesota should have gone with Manti Te'o, receiver Keenan Allen or Patterson's college teammate and counterpart Justin Hunter.
  • Green Bay - The Pack grabbed Datone Jones with the 26th pick. I'm not sure they answered need or found a fit. Jones is pretty good value in the 26th slot but could be better suited in a 4-3. He could possibly be Erik Walden's replacement but is not a natural standup linebacker. Green Bay needed a running back and cornerback depth as well. They clearly considered both positions a reach at this point but Eddie Lacy would have added physicality to the Packers' offense if they had gone running back.
  • Houston - This is another fit but missed pick. Houston went receiver as most people predicted but chose DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson. He's a quality player but the aforementioned Justin Hunter and Keenan Allen would have been choices. Robert Woods also could have been dangerous from the slot in Houston working across the field on those naked boots. 
  • Denver - Sylvester Williams is an athletic defensive tackle with great size. He will likely line up a one-tech which is a great fit. Not a sexy pick but it works. Denver could've taken Eddie Lacy or gone with more youth in the secondary. Also, John Jenkins, who is thought to be a 3-4 nose tackle, is agile enough to make the transition to a 4-3.
  • St. Louis - The Rams may have hit a home run with linebacker Alec Ogletree. He will move to 'WILL' linebacker spot in the Rams 4-3 defense and is suited for it. Catching Jeff Fisher's eye, Ogletree could have the athletic ability reminiscent of Keith Bulluck during Fisher's time with the Titans. Manti Te'o was another possibility but Ogletree is the better fit strictly as 4-3 outside 'backer.
  • Dallas - In maybe the least flashy pick of the night, Dallas drafts Wisonsin's Travis Frederick after trading down to acquire more picks. Frederick is the best center in this draft but can also play guard if need. He has that traditional Wisonsin nastiness about him. I thought Dallas should have taken Matt Elam or Jesse Williams with this pick but they did answer a need.
  • Baltimore - With the last pick of Thursday's installment of the draft, the Ravens selected Matt Elam. He will take over for Bernard Pollard's box duties while trying to also get some of the turnovers Ed Reed used to cause. Elam is great value, need and fits quite well. This is probably my second favorite pick of the night.
I will have more analysis on the second round picks so check back or visit me on twitter, @TheFootballINN. I'm also on Facebook

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